Iranian-backed militants continue to deploy to Deir ez Zor Province under the pretext of defending against rumored International Coalition attacks. Today’s update also includes several scenarios that present the courses of action Iran could take in the province to advance its regional objectives. CTP is expanding on these assessments and hypotheses today by presenting additional developments that show Iran continues to expand its military presence in Deir ez Zor. CTP also considered the hypothesis that Iran may be using the security alert to pursue objectives to achieve regional hegemony. Yesterday, CTP assessed that Iranian-backed militias are possibly bolstering their defensive positions due to the rumor. Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) deployed to lines of contact with Syrian regime-controlled territory on July 7, triggering an influx of Iranian-backed and Regime forces to Deir ez Zor Province in eastern Syria. CTP will update and refine our assessments of these campaigns over time and in future updates.Ī rumor spread in eastern Syria in late June that the US-led International Coalition is going launch an attack into regime-controlled territory. This section examines some of the many campaigns that Iran is pursuing to achieve this strategic objective. This section covers Iranian efforts to consolidate and expand Tehran’s economic, military, and political influence throughout the Levant especially in Syria. Two security and foreign policy officials from the Supreme Leader’s office expressed concern over expanding Western and NATO influence in the Caucasus between July 12 and 13. UK-based, economic think tank Bourse and Bazaar reported that Iran completed payments for 50 Su-35 fighter jets during the second term of reformist President Hassan Rouhani’s administration between August 2017 to 2021.Ĥ). Some official Iraqi proxy channels rejected calls to storm the US Embassy in Baghdad on July 14, possibly to diminish the risk of being drawn into a conflict with the United States.ģ). Iran instructed the IRGC QF to achieve total hegemony in Deir ez Zor Province, Syria in May 2023 and the recent surge of Iranian and Iranian-backed militia deployments to the province may support this objective.Ģ). It also shows developments in Syria that jeopardize regional stability and pose threats to US forces and interests, including Iranian and Iranian-backed militia positions.ġ). The map depicts events in Iran that affect the stability of the Iranian regime, namely anti-regime protests and reported poisoning incidents. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) with support from the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute launched a new interactive map of Iran and the Middle East. To receive Iran Updates via email, please subscribe here. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates Monday through Friday. It also provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. This update covers political, military, and economic events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Iran Update aims to inform national security policy by providing timely, relevant, and independent open-source analysis of developments pertaining to Iran and its Axis of Resistance. Andie Parry, Ashka Jhaveri, Johanna Moore, Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Amin Soltani and Riley Bailey
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